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SOME REFLECTIONS ON
THE PHILOSOPHY OF MINING

Part III

1 October 2001

...continued from Part II

If you’re going to search of gold in Texas, first you need to know where to look. Next you need to know how to get at the stuff. And last but not least you need to remember that a gold mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top.

Anonymous (commonly attributed to,
but not actually uttered by, Mark Twain)

A Second Implication

It also follows from Menger’s two premises that the extent of the things which exist in nature but are not goods – yet which under the appropriate circumstances might become goods – is vast. Indeed, according to George Reisman, Julian Simon and others, given the astonishing results over the past 250 years of individuals’ trial-and-error discovery of knowledge, and the dissemination, cumulation and valuation of this knowledge via the market mechanism, it is reasonable to anticipate that the extent of the things which exist in nature but which are not (yet) goods is effectively limitless. 

Although it has improved drastically during recorded history, mankind’s physical command over natural resources remains confined roughly to presently-accessible parts of that third of the earth’s surface which is not covered by the sea. And in the ocean that command has been confined to depths that are measured in hundreds rather than thousands of metres and to distances from shore that are calculated in tens rather than thousands of kilometres. For most practical purposes, today mankind scratches a minority percentage of the earth’s surface and is ignorant to varying degrees about the remainder. On the other hand, mankind scratches far more ingeniously today than a generation ago; and for this reason it is plausible to suppose that nowhere is he scratching as effectively or efficiently as he will in the future.

In one sense, then – the sense of useable and accessible natural resources, i.e., of goods as Menger defines them – the contribution of nature to human welfare is virtually zero. Practically nothing comes to us from nature in a form that is accessible, ready-made and in a form that satisfies our wants. Virtually nothing in nature, in other words, is a consumer’s good. In another sense, however, the extent of resources in their natural state – the matter, in the form of all the chemical elements, known and presently unknown, and energy in all of its forms – is virtually infinite. It is in this second sense that nature’s potential contribution to human welfare is effectively boundless. 

Thanks to mechanical-powered drilling equipment, high explosives, steel structural supports for mine shafts, modern pumps, engines and a plethora of other innovations, for example, today’s miners can extract ore at a depth of one thousand metres more easily than they once could on the earth’s surface. Today a single miner operating advanced earthmoving equipment can move far more earth than hundreds of manual labourers with shovels were able to shift in the past. Other advances have enabled the extraction of much purer resources from ores previously unusable or too costly to process; and improved transport has made possible low-cost access to high-grade deposits in regions previously inaccessible or too costly to exploit.

According to George Reisman (Capitalism: A Treatise on Economics), there is little doubt that further advances along these lines are possible. Much more efficient and effective means of extracting petroleum from shale and tar sands can potentially expand the supply of petroleum by multiples over what it is today. It is not beyond the realm of possibility that means be devised to transform hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe, into a viable source of fuel. Atomic and hydrogen explosives, lasers, satellite detection systems and space travel may provide new opportunities to increase the supply of economically useable supplies of minerals. Advances in technology which enable mining to be conducted economically at depths of 4,000 metres, or to mine on and under the ocean floor, would so increase the portion of the earth accessible to mankind that all previous supplies of accessible minerals would appear insignificant in comparison.

Reasoning from Menger’s premises thus draws our attention to the enormous and ever-expanding extent of the ‘things’ awaiting transformation by human action and ingenuity into resources that possess goods-character. Not only do individuals constantly use their ingenuity to discover and create the goods-character of resources; they also continuously discover, disseminate and cumulate knowledge of particular resources’ useful properties. By this process, inextricably intertwined with the mechanism of the market, Prometheus is loosening man’s bindings and is affording individuals the capacity vastly and indefinitely to increase the supply of natural resources possessing goods-character. 

Following from Menger, the supply of useable and accessible natural resources will expand as man expands his knowledge of and physical power over his external environment. This knowledge has increased and continues to increase by leaps and bounds; consequently, so too will the supply of resources that possess goods-character.

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A Third Implication

The wealth of historical statistical data in Julian Simon’s book The Ultimate Resource 2 corroborates this expectation. Simon demonstrates that throughout history the supplies of minerals and energy have grown more plentiful and that their prices, whether adjusted for inflation, as a percentage of average wages, etc., have fallen. Further, the prices of producers’ goods such as minerals and energy have fallen more rapidly than those of consumers’ goods. (Simon also demonstrates that environmental conditions are improving and that the poor benefit most from the economic freedom existing in an open, competitive society). 

More specifically, Simon shows that in the short term (i.e., that period of time within which producers are unable to increase production in response to price signals), growth of population and real income increase the demand for – and thus place upward pressure on the supplies of – minerals and energy. This pressure puts upward pressure on their prices. Over longer periods of time, however, these upward movements signal to entrepreneurs that improved means of extracting, transporting and processing these goods may prove profitable. Short-term increases of prices thus spur innovation and entrepreneurship. The historical record demonstrates not only that such innovations are forthcoming: eventually they prove so successful that commodity prices fall below the level (in real terms) prevailing before the short-term increase of price occurred. 

Between 1800 and 1990, for example, the price of copper (expressed as a percentage average weekly wages) decreased at an average compound rate of 2 per cent per year. Its inflation-adjusted market price fell at an average compound rate of 1% per year. The prices of other minerals, including iron and aluminium, tell the same story. So too does energy: between 1870 and 1990 the price of oil relative to average weekly earnings decreased at a compound rate of 1 per cent per year; and its inflation-adjusted market price fell 2% per year. Electricity also conforms to this pattern: since 1890 its price relative to average weekly wages has decreased at a compound rate of 4 per cent per year, and its inflation-adjusted market price has fallen 2% per year. 

As Stephen Wyatt reported (The Australian Financial Review 22 February 1999), “commodity prices, as measured by the Commodity Research Bureau index of U.S. commodity futures markets, hit fresh 24-year lows last week. But that’s nothing – real commodity prices are now at their lowest since the year 1800, having lost 75 per cent of their value since then. It is a commodities-plentiful age. The classical view of commodity prices, led by Malthus in the late 1700s, has been proved wrong. This view was that commodity prices would rise over time due to growing population and finite resources.”

...continued in Part IV

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